Spatial equilibrium model-based optimization for inter-regional virtual water pattern within grain trade to relieve water stress

Abstract Realizing water usability and management sustainability represents one of the Sustainable Development Goals. Since grain cultivation consumes tremendous amounts water, inter-regional trade causes virtual flow, increasing stress in certain water-scarce regions. As second-longest river China, Yellow River bears increasingly severe stress. Considering food security, this study proposes a spatial equilibrium model (SEM) that combines partial theory transport models to maximize net social revenue balance supply demand, thereby optimizing relieve According different natural, technical conditions, we conceived five scenarios predict regional characterized with supplies, demographic structures, demand compositions water-saving technologies. Our simulation results suggest developed SEM can realize resources within Basin, which is capable resolving problem demands regions varying extents (13%–55%), mitigating Finally, recommend some constructive policies for